By the time the first weekend of the tournament had passed, there were more Cinderella candidates than there were glass slippers. I can’t remember an NCAA tournament that has had this many upsets. I actually felt proud to have all my final four picks still alive after the Sweet 16, but that ended promptly with the conclusion of the elite 8. As of now, Florida is my only Final Four pick to survive. Let’s take a look at the Gators and their Final Four competitors and I’ll take a guess at how it might play out. Image may be NSFW.
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#2 Wisconsin Badgers
It’s really not that surprising that Wisconsin has made it this far. I just took a gamble and picked Creighton to knock them out in the Sweet 16, but Baylor took that chance away knocking Creighton out of the dance (By 30 points, WOW!) in the round of 32. So, with Wisconsin beating Arizona in the Elite 8, which really wasn’t that big of an upset at all, the Badgers find themselves in the Final Four. It all starts in the middle for Wisconsin with seven footer Frank Kaminsky Jr. The Badgers have gotten stellar play from the big man in the middle, including 28 points and 11 rebounds to lead the Badgers past Arizona this past weekend.
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Wisconsin will need an encore performance from Kaminsky if they plan to get past Kentucky Saturday night. For the Badgers to win they will have to continue their defensive rebounding prowess (12th in the nation) and feed the big man down low. If Wisconsin can do both of those things and keep the hot shooting hand, they can take down Kentucky and punch their ticket to the Championship game. Image may be NSFW.
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#8 Kentucky Wildcats
Here’s my two cents on Kentucky. They were picked the preseason #1 team in the nation for a reason. That reason is John Calipari’s knack for recruiting top talent. Most of these guys will probably be “one and done” but they always seem to choose Calipari for that one year. The initial problem with this is the question of whether or not these guys will mesh or become one unit in time to make a run when it matters. The answer to that question this year is a resounding Yes! Kentucky proved this point by navigating what I consider to be the hardest road of any of the Final Four participants. It started with a good #9 team in KState, followed by ending the longest active winning streak in Men’s College Basketball against #1 seed Wichita. Next, the Wildcats had to face in-state rival and Defending National Champs Louisville Cardinals. This is where I had Kentucky’s run stopping. Instead they busted my bracket with Aaron Harrison hitting a 3-pointer to go ahead and Julius Randle knocking down two free throws in the clutch to seal the victory. Finally, the Wildcats beat a #2 seeded Michigan team that several analysts thought would win the tournament. For Kentucky to win they will need to keep banging the offensive boards (14.55 per game, 5th best in the nation) and have another unusually good shooting day like they did against Michigan (7-11 3 Pointers). If Kentucky does this and out-muscles Wisconsin in the lane, they will get the win.
Wisconsin vs Kentucky: Who Wins?
Kentucky’s athletic ability will be the deciding factor as they out rebound and out maneuver Wisconsin to a close win. Kentucky wins 76-72 and gets yet another opportunity to play for a championship.
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#1 Florida Gators
Florida doesn’t have the star power that some of the other teams do but they are without a doubt the most complete single unit in the tournament. This is probably the best coaching job to date for Billy Donovan and he’s not done yet. Florida is crazy good at playing defense (#3 Scoring Defense, 57.6 ppg). The opposing team uses the whole shot clock or turns the ball over the majority of times down the court. The Gators offense is great also but will hit a cold streak now and then. They rebound well and shoot well also but as stated before, the Gators biggest thing going for them is their ability to play as a team. They know each other, they know their roles, and they execute them to near perfection. For Florida to win they will need to force turnovers and attempt to keep the other four Huskies on the court from scoring because Shabazz Napier is going to get his. Honestly, if Florida plays its game they will come out victorious.
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#7 UConn Huskies
I would put UConn in the category of one of the most underrated non-Cinderella teams that everyone knows but didn’t talk much about going into the tournament. Here’s Connecticut’s game in a nutshell: Let Shabazz Napier drive and score like he does against everybody and then hit some three’s (38.9%, 27th) and make your free throws (77.4, 5th).
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One of the biggest keys for the Huskies in the tournament has been the play of its role players. Guys like DeAndre Daniels have come on strong during the tournament knocking down threes and Ryan Boatright has been particularly nasty on defense and continued to be a threat on the break away. UConn has basically played a more balanced team effort during the tournament. For UConn to win they will have to continue to get a good effort from the role players and avoid making a ton of turnovers. It will be tough but UConn has the tools to pull off the win.
Florida vs. UConn: Who Wins?
Florida will play its game and take the next step to its “One Shinning Moment” 70-62 Florida
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Championship Game: Florida vs. Kentucky
This will be a SEC throw down for the National Championship. Who said the SEC was down in basketball, right? Well, maybe just top-heavy. Regardless, this will be a great way to end the tournament. The well coached team of veterans versus the young studs. Florida has won this match-up three times this year and I see no reason to think they wont be able to do it again. They will pressure the youngsters into enough turnovers and mistakes to offset the superior athletic ability of Kentucky’s youth. I say we see Blue and Orange confetti with Florida winning 77-70. Let me know your Picks!
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